Recently, however, an alternative viewpoint has emerged, inspired by ideas from robust statistics and robust stochastic optimization.

Wefindalarge range of behavior that can be precisely characterized by a new measure ofconfounding strength.

Ournew bound consistently beats state-of-the-art bounds both on a toy example and on UCI datasets (with large enoughn).

Conventional statistical wisdom established a well-understood relationship between model complexity and prediction error, typically presented as a _U-shaped curve_ reflecting a transition between under-and overfitting regimes. However, motivated by the success of overparametrized neural networks, recent influential work has suggested this theory to be generally incomplete, introducing an additional regime that exhibits a second descent in test error as the parameter count $p$ grows past sample size $n$ -- a phenomenon dubbed _double descent_. While most attention has naturally been given to the deep-learning setting, double descent was shown to emerge more generally across non-neural models: known cases include _linear regression, trees, and boosting_. In this work, we take a closer look at the evidence surrounding these more classical statistical machine learning methods and challenge the claim that observed cases of double descent truly extend the limits of a traditional U-shaped complexity-generalization curve therein. We show that once careful consideration is given to _what is being plotted_ on the x-axes of their double descent plots, it becomes apparent that there are implicitly multiple, distinct complexity axes along which the parameter count grows. We demonstrate that the second descent appears exactly (and _only_) when and where the transition between these underlying axes occurs, and that its location is thus _not_ inherently tied to the interpolation threshold $p=n$. We then gain further insight by adopting a classical nonparametric statistics perspective. We interpret the investigated methods as _smoothers_ and propose a generalized measure for the _effective_ number of parameters they use _on unseen examples_, using which we find that their apparent double descent curves do indeed fold back into more traditional convex shapes -- providing a resolution to the ostensible tension between double descent and traditional statistical intuition.

Recent work shows that in complex model classes, interpolators can achieve statistical generalization and even be optimal for statistical learning. However, despite increasing interest in learning models with good causal properties, there is no understanding of whether such interpolators can also achieve . To address this gap, we study causal learning from observational data through the lens of interpolation and its counterpart---regularization. Under a simple linear causal model, we derive precise asymptotics for the causal risk of the min-norm interpolator and ridge regressors in the high-dimensional regime. We find a large range of behavior that can be precisely characterized by a new measure of . When confounding strength is positive, which holds under independent causal mechanisms---a standard assumption in causal learning---we find that interpolators cannot be optimal. Indeed, causal learning requires stronger regularization than statistical learning. Beyond this assumption, when confounding is negative, we observe a phenomenon of self-induced regularization due to positive alignment between statistical and causal signals. Here, causal learning requires weaker regularization than statistical learning, interpolators can be optimal, and optimal regularization can even be negative.

Acquisition of data is a difficult task in many applications of machine learning, and it is only natural that one hopes and expects the population risk to decrease (better performance) monotonically with increasing data points. It turns out, somewhat surprisingly, that this is not the case even for the most standard algorithms that minimize the empirical risk. Non-monotonic behavior of the risk and instability in training have manifested and appeared in the popular deep learning paradigm under the description of double descent.

In distributed, or privacy-preserving learning, we are often given a set of probabilistic models estimated from different local repositories, and asked to combine them into a single model that gives efficient statistical estimation. A simple method is to linearly average the parameters of the local models, which, however, tends to be degenerate or not applicable on non-convex models, or models with different parameter dimensions. One more practical strategy is to generate bootstrap samples from the local models, and then learn a joint model based on the combined bootstrap set. Unfortunately, the bootstrap procedure introduces additional noise and can significantly deteriorate the performance. In this work, we propose two variance reduction methods to correct the bootstrap noise, including a weighted M-estimator that is both statistically efficient and practically powerful. Both theoretical and empirical analysis is provided to demonstrate our methods.

Error bound conditions (EBC) are properties that characterize the growth of an objective function when a point is moved away from the optimal set.

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